Imagine you are living in a world where factory workers are robots, delivery persons are robots, vehicles are driverless, and all the manual tasks have been assigned to software and hardware of some sort.
In such a world efficiency has increased. The routine chores are easy and more predictable. The Industrial age has been replaced with the AI age. The need for professionals in fields like health, law, coding, manufacturing, and other repetitive tasks has plummeted. Is this a prediction of a dystopia? No. It is the unavoidable reality of the near future. Generative AI is going to entirely change the way we work, engage in economic activity, and earn our livelihoods. It is the right time to recognize the potential of AI and harness it for the upliftment of the neglected segments of society.
Artificial Intelligence is creating two different scenarios. On the one hand, is the development of generative AI. For the sake of simplicity, where generative AI performs human-like functions like writing code, graphic designing, preparing reports, and generation of new content through commands of voice, text, and code.
It is merely the beginning of an end: the end of human dominance over creative and intelligent tasks. Now, AI is poised to perform gigantic tasks which were previously performed by humans. On the other hand, AI is bringing comprehensive automation in routine tasks. In the industrial age and post-industrial age, automation was neither perfect nor complete. According to a report by Goldman Sachs, an investment banking company, AI will replace around 300 million jobs in the next 20 years. Similar risk assessments have been predicted by other credible international organizations, too.
It is important to decipher how AI will shape the future of work. First of all, the imminent threat is job displacement and unemployment. Artificial Intelligence, through a complex web of other technologies like big data and machine learning, will take control of the repetitive tasks in manufacturing, industrial, and office establishment. For instance, AI Chatbots are more effective and restless in responding to the queries of the customers, than human workers. Ostensibly, companies will hire their services as the software has no needs like that of humans.
Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johson in their book ‘Power and Progress: Our 1,000-Year Struggle over Technology and Prosperity’ have explained that technology and innovation have always brought new challenges for humanity. Yet they have compared AI with all previous technical and technological achievements of human civilization. Eventually, they have reached the conclusion that: when the decision making is left to a small elite, technology has nefarious outcomes for the majority while it serves the minority decision making. So, it can be inferred, AI will upend the future of work, but the consequences depend on the political decisions.
In the similar context, AI will widen the already protracted economic inequality in the world. AI penetration is at different levels around the globe. According to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund(IMF), in the developed parts, like Europe and the US, AI will affect around 60 percent of the existing jobs. Its impact in the developing economies would be less severe, because their reliance on cognitive tasks is lower. With the passage of time, as per the estimates of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), most of the jobs in both developed and developing parts of the world will be replaced with effective and efficient software and AI-based solutions. Resultantly, income inequality will become nuanced and unbearable.
AI is rapidly automating human tasks, which will result in fewer jobs for more people. Take any field of life, automation is going to change it beyond recognition. Automation of cognitive tasks through Natural Language Processing (NLP) has reduced the significance of human intelligence in the fields of health, education, and research. Similarly, creative tasks are also getting automated. For instance, from composing music to writing articles, AI is doing everything. Other fields like transportation, physical labour, and routine tasks are also under threat from the inflection of AI. It is the right time to recognize the threat and take measures which can safeguard the interests of already oppressed classes of human civilization.
There is much to be concerned and alarmed about when it comes to AI. Yet, the dystopian future is not the only destination. In order to avoid the job losses created by AI, governments around the globe must adopt the whole of the government approach to tackle the threats of AI. Educational institutions and organizations must reskill and upskill the prospective workforce, which will help them to remain relevant in the changing economic and technological dynamics. Youth must be guided that life long learning is inevitable to have a say in the new economic order dominated by technology. Moreover, the government must support people working in different domains to switch careers and counsel them in learning new technologies.
AI is going to change the future of work. It is the right time for the governments, educational institutions, and organizations to assist the workers in advancing their skills. The regulatory framework should also be more stringent on large scale organizations, so they may equally prefer humans compared to software and robots. AI has the potential to become a disaster for workers or a blessing. It all depends on the choices of the elected political leadership. Governments must realize that AI is a double edged sword. The only available option is to use it for the collective benefit of the society, otherwise it can lead to disasters for the workers.
- The writer is a civil servant. He can be reached at khaliqlakk1@gmail.com
