Of Messages and Mobs

Khalid Hussain
I hope Prime Minister Imran Khan still has the capacity to learn. This would presume he can unlearn as well. Else we are in trouble.
His messages have the potential to reach the collective mind of our society because of his own cult now heady with power. If he does not learn the high art of sending out the right messages, we might not be able to lead the society and remain stuck in our mob mentality.
Just like economics is not merely about getting the fiscal policy right, monetary policy right, and taxation system right although no one can deny their import, leadership of the nation is not about winning elections and posting people on powerful positions.
The development of a society stems from people after growing in their minds. Leaders send positive messages that take root as social norms crafting mindsets of the people. Nations that have trust among people do economically well. Trust not only promotes trade and vice versa, it is needed for society to live in peace. Harmony cannot grow out of discord.
All this agree to note how Imran Khan’s team seems to be falling victim to divisive politics. The devaluation saga has sent a jolt through the economy especially by one of the sharpest interest rate hikes of 150 basis points since 2008 that has jolted both the economy and the government.
Rumour mills worked overtime saying the finance minister is resigning, or threatening to resign. One tv channel even reported Asad Umar had been asked to step aside. A replacement was also named. It culminated in Minister of State for Finance Hammad Azhar tweeting late in the evening the Finance Minister is staying put. Now columns in print media make it impossible to ignore as Hammad advised.
Asad Umar is in the hot seat. He is getting heat like Hafeez Shaikh did a year or so into his term. Some have even made fun poking Hammad Azhar the “vested interests” in this case are most likely within his own party.
Adjustment pangs are nothing new. Asad is going through the same stuff Hafeez Shaikh did. In the aftermath of the 2010 National Finance Commission (NFC) award had turned the fiscal framework upside down while a war in the former tribal areas raged on. Relations with America had gone into disarray after the Salala incident and the Abbottabad raid.
Asad is in the midst of a fiscal storm brewing between the provinces and the federation. The NFC has been reconstituted replacing most old timers. Competition is tough and Asad has to balance the conflicting demands upon a dwindling fiscal resource.
Little wonder that Asad Umar is isolated among his own cabinet and party colleagues. He got little support in his own party for the Reformed General Sales Tax legislation that has been an IMF conditionality as per the programme signed in 2008.
Two devaluations and two interest rate hikes has brought the books closer to adjustment. Yet the political strain has started showing in the ruling party. This does not bode well for harder times ahead when all fiscal adjustment kick in for deficit reduction goals. It does not take an economic wizard to discern more devaluation and interest rate increase are just around the corner. And the worst is yet to come.
Rumour has it the PTI government has already started turning on its own finance minister. After Imran Khan, Asad Umar and Jahangir Khan Tareen have been the next tier of leadership. Both the lieutenants are ambitious. Tareen is the backbone and Asad is the intellectual executive who was committed to subdue the genie of economy.
Tareen’s desire for political influence has never been a secret. His stature in the PTI is second only to the prime minister himself having delivered southern Punjab breaking the Sharif brothers’ hold over Punjab. His disqualification has been a blow to Imran Khan and PTI. Asad Umar is the other successful man PTI supporters and look up to. His political profile grew good myths of conquering the corporate world: an educated young man with brains and brawn who abandoned his exemplary executive career for the country.
Rumour has it Tareen and Asad exchanged harsh words. This bitter exchange has set tongues wagging. It does not bode well when the Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting Fawad Chaudhry and Iftikhar Durrani are obviously pressed into making defensive statements about their star player. The two have been forced to say Asad Umar’s portfolio is in no way threatened.
Asad Umar assures the economy is finally out of the woods and has promised a turnaround in two years. PTI has already lost its most sacred slogan, “we will do it without foreign involvement”. Of course, there have been other compromises too. Side-lining its own icons will hurt PTI politically. Imran Khan requires focus and direction without displacing a familiar face of the party that people have been so fond of.
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Khalid Hussain is Resident Editor of TLTP – You may contact Khalid Hussain at Resident.Editor@lawtoday.com.pk.pk