The pessimism that prevailed before the elections among the broad masses that nothing changes in our country and old practices continue seems to have been further reinforced as the final poll results came in.
Despite every effort by powerful anti-democratic forces, PTI candidates mostly in the cover as independents backed by Imran Khan as his party was banned managed to win the highest number of seats. They grabbed 101 NA seats, followed by PML-N 75 and PPP 54 and MQM 17. The delay in the announcement of results reinforced fears of manipulation at several constituencies reflecting sadly on the integrity of the elections.
Nawaz Sharif lost no time in asserting that his party would form the government even when the full results had not come out. Presently, negotiations with PPP and MQM are in progress to form a coalition. Only time would tell how stable would be the coalition and capable of steering the country in these difficult times. The likely scenario however is that this contrived alliance is likely to face enormous challenges and could lead to further chaos. Ironically, in the past when Nawaz Sharif was no more the favourite of the establishment, he had coined the slogan “give respect to the vote”. But that was then, but now it is his party that is the favourite and pick of those who matter. With PTI decimated in form, though not in spirit, a significant following will remain on the side lines. The next party with 75 votes PML-N has been invited to form the government. PML-N will need the support of PPP and independents to acquire a majority in the parliament. With the stalemate the role of the establishment in facilitating cooperation between parties to form a coalition will give its power another boost. Looking at our past this is not unusual but only reinforces the feeling that even after seventy-six years, democracy in the country has not taken a firm foothold.
One also cannot overlook to what extent the election results have been managed and mutilated. Although, despite intense and well-planned manipulation, PTI candidates in the cover as independents emerged victorious. Subsequently several hurdles have been put to thwart the independent candidates from putting up a united front and play a key role in the formation of the government.
Regrettably, if there is one national characteristic on which Pakistani leadership has shown consistency, it is that they never seem to learn and keep repeating the same mistakes. Playing the dangerous game of manipulating election results is making a mockery of democracy and indirectly further weakening the political system.
There were many irregularities in this election raising concerns among the PTI supporters in particular. The international community too had serious doubts about certain results especially in those constituencies where ECP tallies and those by candidates’ supporters and TV channels differed widely.
Manipulation of results distorts the system severely. In that case the power never belongs to the people and the country remains on a steep downward course. In fact, in Pakistan’s every election there have been serious charges of manipulation. This time too it is the same story, with additional maneuvers, while many countries including from the developing world are conducting elections fairly under impartial election commissions.
A government based on a sound political system where the will of the people is fully expressed without any internal and external maneuvering is the best defence against external threats and internal sources of disruption and terrorist activity. It is not surprising that this simple truth is blatantly ignored repeatedly, as self and narrow institutional interests prevail over national cohesion and betterment.
This simple reality does not seem to take root with political leadership and the establishment. Even if it does it is deliberately sidelined and ignored, as narrow self-interests prevail. The incoming civilian government will have to be seriously involved in countering the threat of terrorism. It should also seriously focus on the economic uplift of the area. Merely relying on the military leadership to tackle the security challenges without economic uplift and political involvement of the people of the area will not bring progress or peace.
Presently, the overall conditions in Pakistan are perilous. The economy continues to shrink and last year was the worst in recent history. The masses are burdened with galloping inflation, as prices of food items and transport charges are rising on a monthly or even weekly basis. National debt is rising and foreign and local investors are shy of investing. Some Pakistani entrepreneurs are willing to invest in Bangladesh or in Africa but not in their own country. Many are migrating to safer havens, be it the West or the Middle East.
This is not surprising considering that in Pakistan the entire earnings through tax collection are spent on debt repayment and defence, and all other expenditure is financed by borrowing. In short, the economy is on a deep slide, and Ankur Shukla, economic analyst, observed that “Pakistan’s election outcome points to increased political instability, casting a darker shadow over growth and prospects for securing IMF aid the country needs to avoid default.” These assessments indicate the future is even bleaker.
Last year, Pakistan averted sovereign default by negotiating a tough deal with the IMF in which a $3 billion bailout was agreed. The new government’s priority will be to negotiate a fresh deal which may not be that easy. Any loan that is agreed will come with strict conditions. With the people already overburdened there is no tolerance to bear further squeeze on their paltry budgets. The industry too that is struggling to remain afloat would find these conditions difficult to bear.
The question remains: are our leaders sensitive to this free fall and its overall impact or living under a delusion that somehow, we will navigate through this maze? As past experience reminds us, the political party in power faces a serious crisis when the people’s expectations are not met. This can take the form of street protests and break up of coalitions triggering political unrest and economic crisis. Our leaders hopefully are conscious of these pitfalls and will seriously work towards living up to their election manifestos and improving the lives of the people.
– The writer is a retired lieutenant general of the Pakistan Army and a former federal secretary. He has also served as chairman of the Pakistan Ordnance Factories Board
